What Happened
Global air cargo spot rates fell 6 percent month on month in July to US$3.12 per kg, Air Cargo Week reports. Rates remain 28 percent above the same month last year, but the premiums built up since the Middle East conflict began in February are continuing to unwind. Xeneta expects a weaker second half of 2026 and says there is little evidence of a traditional peak season forming. The report also notes limited appetite among shippers and forwarders for booking peak season charter capacity.
Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 13:18:09 +0000 Source: Air Cargo Week
What Falling Air Rates Mean for UK Importers
The immediate consequence is negotiating position. With spot rates easing for a second period and charter demand subdued, UK importers have less reason to commit to long fixed-rate agreements at levels set during the February disruption. Keep rate validity short while the market is falling, and benchmark quotes against the published spot level rather than against last year’s contract. The cost of shipping cargo by air is still 28 percent above July 2025 by Air Cargo Week’s figure, so budgets set on pre-conflict numbers will still come up short.
The wider context is the unwinding of a disruption premium rather than a demand-led recovery. Rate spikes driven by conflict, routing changes and capacity displacement tend to fade once flows settle, and July’s fall is consistent with that pattern. It is worth separating what is confirmed from what is not. The 6 percent monthly fall and the US$3.12 per kg level are reported figures. The weaker second half is a Xeneta forecast, and forecasts on air rates have been wrong in both directions since 2020.
What to watch next is whether a late peak arrives at all. If charter capacity stays uncommitted through September, ad hoc space should remain available for time-critical moves at short notice, which favours shippers who currently split volumes between sea and air. Where you use air freight forwarding for stock recovery rather than routine replenishment, a soft market is the point at which shipping cargo by air becomes viable for a wider set of product lines. Customs treatment does not change: the same commodity code, EORI and CDS declaration requirements apply whichever mode carries the goods.
Key Takeaway for Air Freight Buyers
Rates are falling from a conflict-driven peak but remain well above 2025 levels. Hold rate agreements short, benchmark against spot, and treat Xeneta’s weaker second half as a forecast rather than a settled outcome when setting Q4 budgets.
Market Impact
For UK importers running Asia to Europe flows, a soft air market changes the balance between modes. When the air premium narrows, shipping cargo by air for high-value or short-shelf-life goods becomes easier to justify against a 30 to 40 day ocean transit, particularly where working capital tied up in transit stock carries a real cost. That calculation should be run per shipment on landed cost, not fixed once a year, because the gap between the two modes is moving month to month.
The charter market is the clearest signal in the report. Charters are booked when shippers expect capacity to run out, so weak charter appetite points to expectations of adequate scheduled capacity through Q4. For UK exporters, that means fewer capacity refusals on outbound bookings during October and November than in a tight year, though allotments on the busiest lanes can still close early. Retailers building Christmas stock should confirm cut-off dates with carriers in September rather than assuming space will be there.
Source: https://aircargoweek.com/little-appetite-for-peak-season-charters/
